The International Monetary Fund announced Wednesday that it would contribute 1.04 billion euros over three years to Cyprus’ 10 billion-euro rescue plan. Amid the news the euro got the momentum.
US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change in March was 158K vs. forecast for 203K, data on February is revised upwardly from 198K to 237K, which is rather positive. US ISM Non-Manufacturing in March dropped from 56 in February to 54.4, the forecast was 55.9. As a result Nonfarm Payrolls may be lower than forecast for 200K, approximately 160K. DJIA was down 0.76%, S&P 500 fell 1.03%. The euro is in inverse correlation to the stock indices and strengthened 30 points. On the whole, the euro has been growing for the last 5 days along with the stock market and the yesterday’s growth was the result of the euro’s oversold condition.
Yesterday data on Services PMI in March in Spain, Italy, and the eurozone is revealed. It is forecast to be 44.3 vs. 44.7 in Spain, 43.4 vs. 43.6 in Italy, and 46.5 is final estimate for the eurozone, however it may be lower. At 15:45 GMT+4 ECB Interest Rate Announcement is scheduled. At 16:30 GMT+4 ECB president Mario Draghi speaks. There are fears on the market that due to inflation slows, Draghi may allude to the decision to reduce the rate. If there is no hint, than it will be a good sign.
At 18:30 GMT+4 Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke speaks.
Technically, there are conditions for the growth; on the H4 the price reversed above the indicator lines, Marlin oscillator preserved position higher the zero level, on the daily chart it is about to move to the positive area. Nevertheless, the high of April 2 (1.2877) is rather strong and the continuation of growth can be expected after it is tested, in this particular case the targets 1.2896 and 1.2921, with perspective to 1.2965 and 1.2995. If the rate consolidates under 1.2827 (under the indicator lines) the targets 1.2790 (yesterday’s low), 1.2771, and 1.2750 open.
GBP/USD. Forcast for April 5, 2013
Yesterday UK Construction PMI in March rose from 46.8 to 47.2. Despite the forecast was 47.7, the index proved that performance of the UK economy is better than European one.
Today at 12:30 GMT+4 UK Services PMI in March is published, it is estimated to be 51.4 vs. 51.8 in the previous month. At 15:00 GMT+4 BoE MPC Interest Rate Announcement is scheduled.
Technically, the price has stopped before the Fibonacci extension on the H4 and now it is in the range 1.5111 to 1.5157, so there is uncertainty about it and it will clear up when the relevant information is issued. If the yesterday’s high is tested, then it opens such targets as 1.5184 (the level of Fibonacci 236%), 1.5205 (the resistance of march 26 and April 1), 1.5223, the level of reaction 261.8%. If the level of 1.5111 is tested then bearish targets 1.5073, the level of Fibonacci 161.8% and 1.5028, the level of 138.2%, open.
Yesterday UK Construction PMI in March rose from 46.8 to 47.2. Despite the forecast was 47.7, the index proved that performance of the UK economy is better than European one.
Today at 12:30 GMT+4 UK Services PMI in March is published, it is estimated to be 51.4 vs. 51.8 in the previous month. At 15:00 GMT+4 BoE MPC Interest Rate Announcement is scheduled.
Technically, the price has stopped before the Fibonacci extension on the H4 and now it is in the range 1.5111 to 1.5157, so there is uncertainty about it and it will clear up when the relevant information is issued. If the yesterday’s high is tested, then it opens such targets as 1.5184 (the level of Fibonacci 236%), 1.5205 (the resistance of march 26 and April 1), 1.5223, the level of reaction 261.8%. If the level of 1.5111 is tested then bearish targets 1.5073, the level of Fibonacci 161.8% and 1.5028, the level of 138.2%, open.
AUD/USD analysis for April 05, 2013
AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards, just like we expected, corrective wave 2 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (5) (coloured green) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 1.0446 towards the 1.0496 level and we can consider this move as the end of the wave 1 (coloured blue). Therefore, during the early New York session this currency did not manage to hold this level and the price has retraced back to 1.0450 area. We can consider this movement as the end of the sub-wave (A) (coloured pink) of the 2 wave (coloured blue). At the moment the AUD/USD pair is trading around 1.0415 area and we expect to see the price back to yesterday’s high in the next few sessions. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the waves 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1.0581 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support at 1.0385 as stop loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0386 (S2) 1.0416 (S1) 1.0437 (PP) 1.0467 (R1) 1.0488 (R2) 1.0518 (R3) 1.0539
Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0420 with stop loss 1.0385 and take profit at 1.0581 are recommended.
USD/CAD analysis for April 05, 2013
USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the USD/CAD pair has been trading sideways, corrective wave (2) (coloured pink) of the bigger wave 1 (coloured blue) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement from 1.0151 towards the 1.0124 level and we can consider this movement as the end of the corrective wave (2) (coloured pink). Therefore, during the New York session this commodity currency did not manage to hold this level and the price has retraced all the way to the opening price. Today, the USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.0147 and we expect to see the price above 1.0210 area very soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 261.8% of the waves 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1.0212 (261.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support at 1.0060 level as stop loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0097 (S2) 1.0111 (S1) 1.0127 (PP) 1.0141 (R1) 1.0157 (R2) 1.0171 (R3) 1.0187
Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0160 with stop loss at 1.0060 and take profit at 1.0212 are recommended.
GbpChf falls below 1.43 before pulling back. Book partial profits if sold higher
AUD/USD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the AUD/USD pair has been trading downwards, just like we expected, corrective wave 2 (coloured blue) of the bigger wave (5) (coloured green) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe ascending movement from 1.0446 towards the 1.0496 level and we can consider this move as the end of the wave 1 (coloured blue). Therefore, during the early New York session this currency did not manage to hold this level and the price has retraced back to 1.0450 area. We can consider this movement as the end of the sub-wave (A) (coloured pink) of the 2 wave (coloured blue). At the moment the AUD/USD pair is trading around 1.0415 area and we expect to see the price back to yesterday’s high in the next few sessions. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 161.8% of the waves 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1.0581 (161.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support at 1.0385 as stop loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0386 (S2) 1.0416 (S1) 1.0437 (PP) 1.0467 (R1) 1.0488 (R2) 1.0518 (R3) 1.0539
Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0420 with stop loss 1.0385 and take profit at 1.0581 are recommended.
USD/CAD analysis for April 05, 2013
USD/CAD Elliott Wave
Since our last analysis the USD/CAD pair has been trading sideways, corrective wave (2) (coloured pink) of the bigger wave 1 (coloured blue) has been developing. Yesterday, during the Asian and European sessions we could observe descending movement from 1.0151 towards the 1.0124 level and we can consider this movement as the end of the corrective wave (2) (coloured pink). Therefore, during the New York session this commodity currency did not manage to hold this level and the price has retraced all the way to the opening price. Today, the USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.0147 and we expect to see the price above 1.0210 area very soon. In accordance with our wave rules and taking into account that the wave 3 should retrace 261.8% of the waves 1, we can define the potential targets with measuring wave 1 with take profit at 1.0212 (261.8% of wave 1). To reduce the risk, we can use support at 1.0060 level as stop loss.
Support and Resistance
(S3) 1.0097 (S2) 1.0111 (S1) 1.0127 (PP) 1.0141 (R1) 1.0157 (R2) 1.0171 (R3) 1.0187
Trading forecast
Proceeding from Elliott Wave rules today, the trend is expected to begin the upwards movement. That is why long positions at level 1.0160 with stop loss at 1.0060 and take profit at 1.0212 are recommended.
GbpChf falls below 1.43 before pulling back. Book partial profits if sold higher
Technical outlook and chart setups:
The single currency pair falls to initial support around 1.4300 as discussed yesterday. If selling has been made at higher levels, it is recommended to book partial profits. Resistance remains intact at 1.4530 level, while next support level is around the 1.4200 mark, followed by 1.4150 (the counter trend support line is passing across). A temporary pullback is expected higher around 1.4350 level before the resumption of fall towards 1.4200 from here on. Therefore, it is recommended to sell rallies and hold short positions for now. Bottom line: Looking lower till 1.4530 remains intact.
Trading recommendations:
Remain short, stop is at 1.4530, and target is below 1.4.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
Trading recommendations:
Remain short, stop is at 1.4530, and target is below 1.4.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
After a long wait and multiple tests of support at 119.00 level, the single currency pair raises to 122.00 level, as seen here. All the sloping down trendlines of resistances were broken and the prices have also taken out resistances at 120.50 and 121.70. Therefore, it is recommended to hold existing long positions and also buy on dips towards 121.00 level from here on. Immediate support is fixed at 119.00 level, followed by 117.00 and lower; while resistances are lined up at 124.00, 126.00, 127.00, and 127.90 respectively. Looking into the existing wave structure, a high above 126.00 still remains possible. Hold on to longs for now.
Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions, stop is at 119.00, and target is open.
Trading recommendations:
Hold long positions, stop is at 119.00, and target is open.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
A compressed daily chart view has been depicted here for looking into entire consolidation after having been stopped out yesterday at 1,550.00. As seen here, the yellow metal has been locked in a huge trading range between 1,525/30 (line of support) and 1,790/95 (line of resistance). After dislocating all anticipated supports, the metal has now approached, and is trading extremely close to 1,530/40 levels where the line of support is also passing. This is the ultimate make or break scenario for Gold in the coming sessions. A bullish bounce here would be enough proof to again go long for a reversal ahead of 1,530/40 levels. On the flip side, a breakdown now would make a dramatic shift in the trend. It is recommended to remain flat for now, at least for 1-2 trading sessions.
Trading recommendations:
Flat for now. Waiting for bounce or a break.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
A compressed daily chart view has been depicted here to look into overall, consolidation structure since last several months. Sub 26.00 level has been support, while resistance line has been sloping from 38/39 levels to 35.00 level. Immediate resistance is at 29.50, followed by 32.30, 34.10 and higher up; while support is around 26.00 region. Prices have reached pretty close to the support band of 26.00 and a reaction should be expected here. A bullish bounce should encourage bulls while a break below 26.00 would be a paradigm shift in trend. It is recommended to remain flat at least till tomorrow.
Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now.
Good Luck!
NZD/USD: technical analysis for April 4, 2013
Overview:
The NZD/USD pair continues its movement straight from 0.8300 (at H4 chart 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels, as well it is probably going to retest it again). Therefore, the Kiwi has shown signs of strength following the break of the highest level of 0.8300, so it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart (strong support) with the first target of 0.8400 and further to 0.8450 (it will act as a strong resistance for that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide at 78% of Fibonacci). However, in case reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.8350, the market will lead to further decline to 0.8310, in order to indicate a bearish market. It should be noted that it is possibly that the price will be trapped between 0.8410 and 0.8325 this week. The range for yesterday was only 74 pips, hence the market indicates the lower volatility (volatility: 58.45).
If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.
EUR/JPY technical analysis (Euro/Yen long-term period) for April 5, 2013
Overview:
It should be noted that the price is still trapped between 123.20-122.76 and it has been set below strong resistance at the level of 126.00. EUR/JPY's subsequent sharp fall suggests that decline from 126.00 a month ago had resumed to 122.20 (strong support). The pair has already formed a strong resistance at the level of 126.00 and it is now approaching it in order to test it. Therefore, the fact that the yen will move downwardly is rather convincing. The structure of the fall does not look corrective. It is likely to indicate a bearish opportunity below 126.00 (you should keep in mind that the weekly pivot point is at 122.40). It will be a good sign to sell below 126.00 with the first target at 124.30 and it will call for downtrend to continue moving towards 122.40 (around 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H4 chart).
Furthermore, it should also be said that the price at 120.00 will probably form a double bottom and call for a strong support. So it will be saturation around 120.00 to rebound the pair. The market might also be going to start showing the bullish signs. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 120.20 with the first target of 123.50 and continue towards 126.00.
If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.
A compressed daily chart view has been depicted here for looking into entire consolidation after having been stopped out yesterday at 1,550.00. As seen here, the yellow metal has been locked in a huge trading range between 1,525/30 (line of support) and 1,790/95 (line of resistance). After dislocating all anticipated supports, the metal has now approached, and is trading extremely close to 1,530/40 levels where the line of support is also passing. This is the ultimate make or break scenario for Gold in the coming sessions. A bullish bounce here would be enough proof to again go long for a reversal ahead of 1,530/40 levels. On the flip side, a breakdown now would make a dramatic shift in the trend. It is recommended to remain flat for now, at least for 1-2 trading sessions.
Trading recommendations:
Flat for now. Waiting for bounce or a break.
Technical outlook and chart setups:
A compressed daily chart view has been depicted here to look into overall, consolidation structure since last several months. Sub 26.00 level has been support, while resistance line has been sloping from 38/39 levels to 35.00 level. Immediate resistance is at 29.50, followed by 32.30, 34.10 and higher up; while support is around 26.00 region. Prices have reached pretty close to the support band of 26.00 and a reaction should be expected here. A bullish bounce should encourage bulls while a break below 26.00 would be a paradigm shift in trend. It is recommended to remain flat at least till tomorrow.
Trading recommendations:
Remain flat for now.
Good Luck!
NZD/USD: technical analysis for April 4, 2013
Overview:
The NZD/USD pair continues its movement straight from 0.8300 (at H4 chart 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels, as well it is probably going to retest it again). Therefore, the Kiwi has shown signs of strength following the break of the highest level of 0.8300, so it will be a good sign to buy above the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement levels on H4 chart (strong support) with the first target of 0.8400 and further to 0.8450 (it will act as a strong resistance for that it is going to be a good place to take profit, it also should be noted that this level of taking profit will coincide at 78% of Fibonacci). However, in case reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.8350, the market will lead to further decline to 0.8310, in order to indicate a bearish market. It should be noted that it is possibly that the price will be trapped between 0.8410 and 0.8325 this week. The range for yesterday was only 74 pips, hence the market indicates the lower volatility (volatility: 58.45).
If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.
EUR/JPY technical analysis (Euro/Yen long-term period) for April 5, 2013
Overview:
It should be noted that the price is still trapped between 123.20-122.76 and it has been set below strong resistance at the level of 126.00. EUR/JPY's subsequent sharp fall suggests that decline from 126.00 a month ago had resumed to 122.20 (strong support). The pair has already formed a strong resistance at the level of 126.00 and it is now approaching it in order to test it. Therefore, the fact that the yen will move downwardly is rather convincing. The structure of the fall does not look corrective. It is likely to indicate a bearish opportunity below 126.00 (you should keep in mind that the weekly pivot point is at 122.40). It will be a good sign to sell below 126.00 with the first target at 124.30 and it will call for downtrend to continue moving towards 122.40 (around 50% of Fibonacci retracement levels in the H4 chart).
Furthermore, it should also be said that the price at 120.00 will probably form a double bottom and call for a strong support. So it will be saturation around 120.00 to rebound the pair. The market might also be going to start showing the bullish signs. In other words, it will be a good sign to buy above 120.20 with the first target of 123.50 and continue towards 126.00.
If you have any questions or requests, please feel free to contact me: mourad.elkeddani@analytics.instaforex.com.
GBP/USD intraday technical analysis and trading recommendations for April 5, 2013
Looking at 1.5250 which was tested on Monday, the GBP/USD pair expressed quite significant bearish price action which is manifested in the 4H shooting star candlestick followed by the bearish engulfing candlestick.
Breakdown of support level around 1.5150 allowed a quick movement towards the major support around 1.5070 as we mentioned in the yesterday's article.
Today few hours ago, the GBP/USD pair has failed to remain below 1.5070 expressing quite significant bullish rejection which is manifested in the bullish engulfing 4H candlestick.
This obvious bullish price action towards 1.5070 renders this support level worthy watching on the next visit for a possible BUY entry with tight SL below 1.5020.
The next bullish target for the GBP/USD pair is probably the backside of the broken bullish channel around 1.5200.
Looking at 1.5250 which was tested on Monday, the GBP/USD pair expressed quite significant bearish price action which is manifested in the 4H shooting star candlestick followed by the bearish engulfing candlestick.
Breakdown of support level around 1.5150 allowed a quick movement towards the major support around 1.5070 as we mentioned in the yesterday's article.
Today few hours ago, the GBP/USD pair has failed to remain below 1.5070 expressing quite significant bullish rejection which is manifested in the bullish engulfing 4H candlestick.
This obvious bullish price action towards 1.5070 renders this support level worthy watching on the next visit for a possible BUY entry with tight SL below 1.5020.
The next bullish target for the GBP/USD pair is probably the backside of the broken bullish channel around 1.5200.
USD/CAD intraday technical analysis and trading recommendations for April 5, 2013
Lack of the bullish steam seemed to exist during the last few weeks and the pair seems to be under negative pressure which was manifested on March 26 in the massive bearish daily candlestick.
Bearish rejection around 1.0300 was followed by multiple days of indecision within the same consolidation range 1.0225-1.0330 until the pair gave obvious daily closure below 1.0220 which opened the way towards the projection target at 1.0110 which was visited earlier this week.
It is important to note that support is located around 1.0130 (50% Fibonacci) then 1.0100 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where profits of the SELL orders should have been taken.
On the 4H chart, price action indicates bullish rejection around 50% Fibonacci. It probably offers a BUY entry with SL as 4H closure below 1.0080.
Lack of the bullish steam seemed to exist during the last few weeks and the pair seems to be under negative pressure which was manifested on March 26 in the massive bearish daily candlestick.
Bearish rejection around 1.0300 was followed by multiple days of indecision within the same consolidation range 1.0225-1.0330 until the pair gave obvious daily closure below 1.0220 which opened the way towards the projection target at 1.0110 which was visited earlier this week.
It is important to note that support is located around 1.0130 (50% Fibonacci) then 1.0100 (61.8% Fibonacci level) where profits of the SELL orders should have been taken.
On the 4H chart, price action indicates bullish rejection around 50% Fibonacci. It probably offers a BUY entry with SL as 4H closure below 1.0080.
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